Linda Ledger turns the conditions that would prove you wrong into checks that run every evening against SEC filings and prices. When one trips, you get the evidence before you think to look, and every step goes into a record nobody can edit.
“A member stops being able to fund itself” — runway under 12 months
Holds“Dilution overwhelms holders” — shares up more than 15% a year
WatchingYou already wrote down why you own it. Linda Ledger keeps checking whether that is still true.
The investment memo or IC note you already have. We turn it into a draft thesis, with each condition linked to the sentence it came from.
Each kill criterion and milestone shows the sentence it came from. You edit, then approve.
Against new SEC filings, company reports and prices. Missing data says “unknown”, never a guess.
Only when a criterion trips, clears or a milestone is missed — with the number, its source and its date.
Hold, trim, exit or retire the criterion, with a reason. Everything is chained and timestamped.
On 13 October 2026 the check on a robotaxi thesis tripped: one of its four companies had under two months of cash at its recent burn. No one had to remember to look.
The same day, the check also showed its working. Two other companies' runways looked too short because short-term investments weren't counted. We corrected the measurement in public, next to the alert, and the record kept both.
| Company | 13 Oct | After the fix |
|---|---|---|
| Lucid (LCID) | 2 months | 1.6 months |
| Rivian (RIVN) | 12 months | 16.6 months |
| Pony AI (PONY) | 19 months | 92 months |
| WeRide (WRD) | 40 months | 40 months |
Criterion: runway under 12 months. It stayed tripped after the fix, because of Lucid alone.
Each check has a precise definition, a public data source and a test, including the case that usually fools a quick script. Anything that can't be measured from public data stays with you, as a review item.
Survival. Known trap covered: cash held in short-term investments counts (Rivian, Oct 2026); a newer 6-K beats older annual XBRL.
Survival. Known trap covered: investments are cash; operating leases are not debt here.
Capital. Known trap covered: a stock split is not dilution (changes beyond -30%/+140% are ignored).
Capital. Known trap covered: a 424B5 can be a debt deal: the alert says 'filed', not 'diluted'.
Operations. Known trap covered: foreign filers with only annual figures use the annual basis, labelled.
Operations. Known trap covered: negative gross margins (early manufacturers) are valid values, not errors.
Operations. Known trap covered: a missing report breaks the run rather than counting as a fall.
People. Known trap covered: appointments also file 5.02: the alert says 'change'.
People. Known trap covered: 13D/A amendments count; 13G (passive) does not.
Governance. Known trap covered: a planned rotation also files 4.01.
Governance. Known trap covered: a voluntary transfer of listing also files 3.01.
Market. Known trap covered: adjusted vs unadjusted prices after a split.
Market. Known trap covered: dividends are ignored (price return), stated plainly.
Governance.
Survival.
Your judgement. It becomes a review item with a date, so it is never forgotten.
Every thesis version, check, alert, correction and decision is an entry linked to the one before by a SHA-256 hash. Change any entry and every hash after it stops matching.
That gives you something to show investors, an auditor or a compliance officer: what you believed, when you were warned, and what you did. Export it as a file at any time.
{"seq": 4, "kind": "alert.raised",
"data": {"thesis": "autonomy-consolidation",
"item": "c1", "from": null, "to": "tripped",
"detail": "WRD runway 40 months; PONY runway 19 m…",
"on": "2026-10-13"},
"prev": "47b9…a6c1",
"hash": "d599…9853"}In the best-known experiment on judgment, Kahneman and Tversky described a woman named Linda and asked people which was more likely: a plain fact about her, or that fact plus a detail that fit her story. Most chose the story, even though it can never be more likely than the fact alone.
Investment theses fail the same way. A story that once fit keeps feeling true after the facts have moved. Linda Ledger checks the story against the filings every evening, and keeps the record.
Source: Tversky & Kahneman (1983), “Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment”. Background.
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